PLO River Bluff
This is a 1/2/5 hand from Rio. There is no BTN straddle on this hand so I over limp A
T58 from the c/o. 5 to flop.(Pot ~25) Flop T
92 Sb leads for 25. He is a decent LAG. Prob bets in some spots he shouldn't but prob hand reads better than others at this level. UTG is terrible PLO player, he calls. 1 more call, I call. 4 to turn.(Pot ~125) Turn 9
Checks to me. I'm not sure about betting here as 4 ways someone should have a 9 IMO.(Pot ~125) River 5
An absolute brick. SB leads 80 and UTG calls rather quickly. I feel like there are a ton of missed draws here and at least one 9. I don't think a raise reps a lot other than a terrible played TT (since we are $1k+ deep I am always betting turn with TT) or maybe like 9875 which I would definitely raise given action. But given the SB read I feel like he will fold most non-FH hands, UTG is a bit of a wild card but my guess is that he has a weakish 9, J9-K9 IMO. If he has A9 he might hero call. But I raise to $325. SB folds, UTG keeps saying he has no idea what to do, then releases. Good hand, thought it through and though I don't like trying to bluff a fish I didn't think he could call with much of his range and was fortunately right.
Fish gets Lucky
This is a funny one at 2/5 PLO at Venetian. Villain here is a massive Euro fish with no idea what is going on.
Few limps up front and I go 40 with 9
TJQ from c/o. My image is super crazy as I had earlier re-pot isolated a shortstack with 9763ds with nearly a full pot of dead money in a scooped with 2 pair. Anyway, sb calls, UTG calls, limper calls and all else fold.(Pot ~175) Flop 5
78 check to me..I check it back can prob bet but with no blockers and decently deep stacks (I have $2k+, SB has $1.5k). i decide to peel for free in 4 way pot.(Pot ~175) Turn is bingo T
SB ch, UTG Full Pots for 175, limper folds, I repot to $700, SB folds, UTG snap calls with $140 more behind. (Pot ~1575) River 8
He stuffs $140...I reluctantly call...he shows...T875 with no 
Awesome! Then begins teaching me that I should have folded river since board paired. I choose not to inquire as to what he thought I had on turn as it seems pointless.Oh well. Get most of his stack in as big favorite but w/e. Not exactly sure of his suits but know he didn't have clubs.
| ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation |
| 40 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: 587T |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9cThJcQd | 82.50% | 33 | 0 |
| 5s7h8hTd | 17.50% | 7 | 0 |
What would you do here?
One more 2/5 NLHE Hand and we flop Bottom Set!
Chick goes 15 up front, 3 call and I call BB with 22...she has about 1200, I have callers covered with about 2k. 9T2r. SB is tight older dude and leads for 20 into 75...I raise to 75...chick calls. Super bad lag goes 225 with only 250 behind. SB folds.
Ranges
Chick-Should have an overpair here. I don't think she is folding to bad lag. She is not one to let go of OP easily.
Bad Lag-I have him beat here like always. He can have a lot of 1 pair hands, draws (which she might be blocking), perhaps T9, and believe it or not this guy has some complete airballs here IMO. He is likely only folding airballs which should be the smallest part of his range.
Choices
1) Raise to ~500 which may fold out chick.
2) Flat and hope that she spazzes out or at least calls his raise.
If we call are we just leading all turns or c/r turn?
4 comments:
Scary as shit to bluff into a paired board like that. You hold your breath and let go when they finally (for what seems like forever) let it go.
On to the WWYD:
I agree with assessment; chick almost always has an overpair. Here's the dilemma I have: I want all the money in (obviously) but I'm way deep to want to be playing for stacks with 2 cards to come. I'd rather see a truly safe turn (i.e. not an A, K, Q or perhaps J) and get the money in on the turn.
Chick has basically declared that she's not folding, which screams overpair. I think you can get $500 out of her on the turn by flatting the flop - let LAG dump in his $250 on turn and evaluate.
If an overcard comes on the turn, I'm leading smaller than if a brick comes on the turn. There's a ton of money already in the pot and I'm not so worried about getting in (because I think that's going to happen anyway) more than I'm worried about being drawn out on for 2.5x buy ins.
The answer for me is 2) and lead all turns that LAG does not lead, min raise turns that LAG does lead.
Well I think she like never folds KK or AA in this spot even though those hands are really no different than QQ or JJ. Reality is I am virtually never folding unless the board runs JQ turn and river. Too big a pot 3 ways to ever level myself into a fold.
So the question is how to get her stack in. I'm not concerned with getting outdrawn with 2 cards to come. Just can't be concerned with that.
Me flatting seems super strong to me but probably not as strong as me 4B here. I mean how often do you see a 4b at low level NLHE? Virtually never.
So I think the best way to get value is to flat the 3b and lead all turns.
Sadly I did that and she folded anyway. Just not sure I can get her to put more in. She later told me she had JJ and judging by her play later I think that is right.
I led a brick turn and 3b player insta-folded so I think I just wasn't getting any more value.
Sometimes you get lucky to run into a player that can't lay down when they know they're beat, and sometimes you don't. What did you bet on the turn that got folds from the field?
I bet 150 which I think is the wrong sizing. Should have bet half of his stack so that if she calls and he shoves I can reshove.
Post a Comment