Monday, December 23, 2013

Promised 1k Hours Post

So this is the promised 1k hour post. I don't know that what I have learned over this is anything earth shattering or different then what can be learned in other forums or live player blogs but here it is anyway. Before that a little background is in order though.

Before black Friday I was primarily an online player. I wasn't a huge baller or anything but I earned enough at the tables and through rakeback to make it worth my time. I had some good months, had some not so good months and even a few stinkers in there. I also was learning a hell of a lot of fundamental poker that would serve me really well when I ramped up the live play post BF. 

When I started post-BF I was sort of wandering around trying to figure out what and where to play. MD casinos were, of course, not an option. I played some 1/2 home games, some casino games at DE Park and in AC. I played mixed games, NLHE, PLO, jumped around in stakes, etc. I was pretty all over the place. At some point in mid-2012, I finally just committed to playing 2/5 NLHE and played a bunch at DE Park and Charles Town. I would occasionally play PLO or Limit O8 still but I was mostly playing 2/5 with the hope of moving up to 5/10. Finally in spring of 2013 I started shot taking 5/10. The results have been mixed but they only represent 90 hours or so of this sample size. Anyway here are my results in text and graph form:

 



As you can see, the beginning of this time frame I was sort of a marginal winner not really sure what I was doing. Eventually I found my footing and have run pretty well over all since. For frame of reference this is approximately the time spent at each stake/game represented in this chart:

2/5 NLHE 500 hours
1/2 Mixed (mostly PLO8, Big O and PLO) 150 hours
1/2 NLHE 100 hours
2/2 and 5/5 PLO 100 hours
5/10 NLHE 90 hours
Misc mixed limit games (Horse, Stud 8, O8) 70 hours
5/10/25 PLO/PLO8 10 hours

So What Have I learned?

Most Live Players aren't Very Good If you are reading, this fact is probably obvious. Most live players (particularly at 2/5 and below) are playing for fun or a night away from the wife or whatever. Most have very poor fundamentals and are really just playing their own hands. Some still think poker=pit game and don't really distinguish between gambling by playing poker and gambling at the craps table. Understanding this obvious statement should help you improve the next fact.

Player Types

So the core of playing poker is reading your opponent and trying to stay one step ahead of him. Opponents generally play too loose and too passively. They call too much and don't raise enough. This is particularly true at lower stakes. Players simply play their hands in most cases so they are easy to play against. Where I see internetty players struggle is that they are constantly trying to force the action, 3 betting wide ranges, stacking off light, etc. What they are failing to account for is the simplicity of their opponents thoughts. I struggled with this too. Hey I would play XX this way so I guess he would too. It just doesn't happen. Most players ch/call their draws not c/r flop with them. Most players love to "trap" since they saw Phil Hellmuth do it. Often times the lines opponents take make little sense when trying to analyze them through the prism of a more fundamentally "correct" approach to the game. Once you accept this fact, the next part of the game becomes easier.

Ranging Opponents

So we have established that live players are generally not too good. We have also established that generally below 5/10 they tend to be on the passive side. We have to account for these facts when we start ranging our opponents. Obviously the more we can narrow an opponents range the better decisions we can make and the more we profit. But in order to do this we have to be honest about our ranging. The tendency I initially had (and frankly a lot of regs have) is to find the hands they can beat and put that in an opponents range. This gives them justification to make a thin calll or whatever and then when they are shown a winning hand we hear things like "Well if he bets AQ there it's a pretty easy call against his range". More often then not the likelihood that those hands are in their range is extremely small. Until an opponent shows me he is capable of betting thinly or playing wide ranges in certain spots I simply assume they are not capable of it and can assume I am up against a much narrower range.

Bet/Folding

I mean this is the core of beating live low stakes no limit. It just is. When you have a TPGK type hand or better your general instinct should be to bet until you are "told" not too. If we accept the premise that LLSNL players are passive as a whole then the logical response is to keep betting while they are calling and fold when they start shoveling money in the pot. To be sure this can be hard especially when the pot is offering us a great price or on the river when the we have a large portion of our stack in the pot. But in the end it doesn't matter. We simply aren't going to be exploited enough by the average players to necessitate a change in approach. Bet/folding is the most useful theory I have learned to date in beating and prospering against most 2/5 and below lineups.

Regs are generally pretty bad

So I have logged ~250 hours since MD Live opened 3 months or so ago. Given the size of the room there are quite a few regs and semi-regs that are there a lot. Funny thing is that other than 8-10 I have played with they really aren't all that good either. Many are entirely too nitty, bet or call in spots here they can't possibly expect to be good, have tilting characteristics and generally are probably break even to marginally winning players at best. They are easy to identify and shouldn't provide too much trouble if you are paying attention at all. Which leads to the next.

PAY ATTENTION 

Above all else pay attention! Most players are complete tell boxes throughout the hands. They give away a ton of info not only in their mannerisms but also in betting and bet sizing patterns and their willingness or unwillingness to bet/raise in certain spots. dgiharris did a great write up in the 2+2 LLSNL chat thread a month or so ago that says it all better than I could so here it is:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
Table selection is easily responsible for 25% of my winrate...

So suffice to say, table selection is VERY IMPORTANT. The ability to switch tables, get a quick yet accurate read, and act upon those reads is a crucial skill pros and winning players need to have.

You should be able to get a decent read on a table after a couple of orbits. You are looking for whether or not players:

#1 Value bet (or don't value bet) strong hands
#2 Value bet weak hands
#3 Bluff missed draws
#4 Don't bluff missed draws
#5 Semi-bluff draws
#6 C-bet
#7 Float
#8 Double barrel
#9 Triple Barrel
#10 Preflop raises vs positions
#11 Sizing tells
#12 Donk Speak like "I know you have nothing" followed by a fold or "I know you have me beat" followed by a call
#13 Calling off 60% of their stack preflop and flop merely to fold bricked turns
#14 Incorrectly set mine or draw when don't have the proper odds


All of the above will give us 90% accuracy and confidence in getting a good pulse on our villains competency and table dynamics...

And all of the above we can discern within two orbits if we are paying attention to every hand.

Again, this skill is CRUCIAL for winning players to have.

The otherside of this equation is the ability to recognize when your table has gone from super juicy to bone dry. It can happen in the blink of an eye. The super donk busts out followed by the whale racking up and leaving the table and all of a sudden, your table has gone from an action table to a rock garden. The sooner you recognize this fact and leave this table in favor of a better one, the better your winrate will be. And this goes double for when you spot the loud action table across the room where everyone is drinking, laughing, and lots of chips are flying around....

There have been times where I have tipped the floor $10 or even $20 to get me on THAT table.

I can't overstress the importance of this skill. Could literally mean the difference between you grinding 8hrs for a buy-in vs you stacking donks for 5 BIs within 3 hours...
Just read this again and again and it says 90% of all you will ever need to know about paying attention to opponents, understanding them, etc. I am slowly coming to the realization of the importance of table selection though I don't know that at MD Live it is as important as he believes. Still you can't go wrong with any of this advice as it is pure gold. 

Other things I have learned include: importance of shot taking, importance of keeping good records and importance of maintaining a separate poker bankroll. I do all three and feel that without doing so I would stagnate as a player. Obviously it goes without saying that staying connected to the poker world through forums (2+2 being the most important), etc. and constantly thinking about/discussing hands is critical to growing as a player. There are always people out there that can look at a hand or a spot in a different way that maybe you hadn't considered. Doing that with an open mind can only improve your game. 

I'll follow separately with hat I still think I need to work on to get better and move up in stakes.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Last 2 weeks or so; Lost Value

11/21/13-Home Game

5:00 1/2 Mixed (Mostly Big O and NLHE) -$1,100

11/26/13-MD Live

25 mins 2/2 PLO +$653
11:10 2/5 NLHE +$542
11/29/13-MD Live

10:23 2/5 NLHE +$1,557


The theme of this post is lost value. I feel like the last two sessions I have played well but not optimally. In particular this last session I may have played a bit too conservative in a spot or two. I will post some specific hands.

Overall though, November continued to end well. I ran really poorly in the home game session (my bi-weekly Thursday night game) losing flips, getting coolered, etc. No big deal as it was all mostly standard stuff. The stacks get deeper as the night goes on and some big pots are often played.

Anyway here are the hands.

Welcome to the Table

I had doubled up on my first table and then the fish went broke and the table got really bad. So I immediately asked for a table change and got one. Problem is on a table change you can only buy in for the table max-$500. So I had to pocket the table 1 profit. Anyway I got moved to a new table and unwittingly got the God seat. Both of the competent big stacks on my immediate right with 2 big stacked mega fish on their immediate right. Probably the best seat I could ask for. This hand is totally standard though.

First hand I am dealt, one of the competents is walking around so I am in the BB. Few limpers and BTN who is a terri-bad fish raises to $35. I peel JJ and decide to 3b to $125. He is a massive losing fish that I have played with before and will call with a lot of hands...I figured any pair he would set mine, any 2 broadways, and AT+, etc. Folds to him and he calls.

(Pot ~$270) Flop QJ4 I lead $150, he ships and I snap obv. River runs out clean and he says "Your Kings are good". I table and he says "Oh god, you got lucky sir...nice hit". I'm sorry what? If KK is good then I was good the whole way...lol. I'm assuming he had AQ. Of course, he played the hand like the fish that he is (by flatting pre-flop) but that is beside the point.

I posted the next hand on 2p2 and everyone agreed a flop flat was in order. Here it is:

Flop the World



There are 2 massive donators in this game. They are SB and BB in this hand. They each are sitting on 1.2k+ and I cover. They are running like 100/10 both and show down hands like K3o, J6o, etc. Once they make a pair postflop regardless of the action they simply aren't folding.

Anyway I overlimp in LP with A8 SB completes, BB raises to 20, 2 limpers call, I call, SB calls-5 to flop.

(Pot ~100) Flop 679 Blinds check, UTG bets 35 with only 125 behind. Limper #2 folds and on me.

Obv smashed the flop and given deepish stacks with the 2 fish and their stickiness I'm thinking raise to 125-ish? Anyone want to flat and for sure keep them in?

Again if they have a pair they are likely to call anything...If they have 2 overs (ie KQ, KJ) they are literally 50/50 to peel if I flat.
I elected to flat the 35 as did one of the fish. Turn was K. Short stack shoved, I called and fish folded. I held for a medium sized pot that probably should have/could have been bigger.

I just wonder if I can get more $$$ in there even by doing something dumb on the flop like min-raising and getting the fish stuck in a bigger pot. There is not a single hand he can have that I am scared of obviously and deep stacked I just wonder about building pots here.

Flopped Set on Drawy Turn

I think I probably lost value here too. I was playing really TAG due to the 100% VPIP of the 2 fish in the game and their complete inability to fold post flop with any pair. Just had to adjust and felt this was the optimal way to play them. For whatever reason, however, I decided to play this pre-flop a little un-TAG.

Few limps to me and I decide to raise 77 in the c/o to $25. Not sure how good this is given the stickiness of the table but I wanted BTN to fold as he had just sat down and was a good player. Both fish call as does one other limper. 4 to the flop.

(Pot ~$110) Flop 723 All check and I bet $75...only the two fish call.

(Pot ~$335) Turn 8 First fish leads at the pot now for $125. Second fish jams $450 total. First fish has about $725 behind. If I flat he will have ~$400 behind if he flats. If I jam I think he will have a hard time calling without 2 pair +. However, if I flat he can easily fold any combination of all of his draws unimproved on the river. So that coupled with his lead just convince me that he is not folding, so I rejam. He tanks and finally folds claiming he had 69. IDK if that is true but if so I made the right play jamming. Really hard to put him on a hand there that is not a draw but I guess he could just be clicking buttons.

Anyway I hold vs. A5 versus fish #2 and win a nice sized pot.

Perhaps I am overthinking the hand with respect to Fish #1 but I just wonder if flatting could have yielded more value. Even if he flats the $450 and folds river I still pick up an extra $325.

Any thoughts here?

Overpair in a 3b Pot

I've been watching some Bart Hanson videos at night and watched one on bloated 3b pots. It made a lot of sense and got me thinking if I played this hand a little too fast.

Fish #1 from above opens to $25 and gets 2 callers. I 3b to $110 from the BTN with QQ. Only fish calls. He starts hand with $700 and I cover by a lot. His range remains pretty wide even after the 3b and includes stuff as weak as JTs+, KJs+, AXs, small pairs, etc.

(Pot ~$275) Flop J73 Now here is where I think I make a sizing mistake. He checks and I bet $200. I don't think this sizing is terrible but I do think I can bet smaller both to induce or get value. If he has or JX he is going with it anyway so my sizing doesn't matter. But he might peel 88-TT, hell even 44-66 to try and turn a straight draw. He is a massive fish and effective stacks are 2x the pot. I think I can bet like $140...maybe he tries to "outplay" me and shoves or maybe he calls. then stacks are ~$450ish with $655 in the pot.

Obviously he folded and I won but I'm just not sure this was optimal sizing. May start a new thread in LLSNL about sizing in bloated, 3b pots.

So no $10k November for me but a very good month nontheless. I also just recently clipped 1k hours in in live play since Black Friday when we all thought the poker world was ending. I may do a post about that with results, what I learned, where I still think I need to get better, etc. if there is interest so let me know.