Recent stuff and PLO hand review....comments requested

Start with the obligatory screen shot of my Stars Cashier cleaned out. Fortunately I had purchased a 100k FPP bonus in late March so I don't have a lot of FPPs. They say they are working on a solution for paying these out though mine are only worth ~$250ish based on the 1.5c/FPP value available to Supernova's at the 100k FPP rate.

Still waiting for a response from FTP on how they are going to pay out. I do have a decent amount of $$ on there as well as over 100k in Full Tilt Points. I assume this will be worked out at some point in the near future. Would be nice to have that money back before the WSOP. Speaking of which here is the intended schedule for June:

June 8 $550 HORSE-Venetian
June 9 $230 PLO8-Golden Nugget
June 10 $1500 HORSE-WSOP
June 11 $1500 NLHE-WSOP or $340 NLHE-Venetian
June 12 $1000 NLHE-WSOP
June 13 $1500 PLO-WSOP
June 14 $1070 NLHE-Venetian

I usually end up not playing all the events I schedule just due to making Day 2s, exhaustion, etc. but it looks like a good schedule on paper. I may or may not return in July to try and satellite into the ME and play misc other events out there. Also, I may sell some of my action (perhaps 25-50%) most likely on 2p2. Will post a link to that thread if I decide to do so or you can request info here.

Hopefully my dreadful live tournament stretch will be over by then. I am something like 0 for my last 15 events at Borgata/DE Park/etc. since last fall (this doesn't include home game type tournaments where I have been killing in 2011). This week it continued at the Borgata Spring Open. Quick rundown:

• HOSE-Gathered a lot of chips early. Blinds went up rather fast and I got stuck calling a lot of bets with strong hands like Aces up in Stud and trips in Stud 8 and busted like 10 before the money.
• NLHE 75k Guarantee-Gathered a lot of chips early then went card dead. About 20 before the money shipped 15ish BB holding AT over 2 limpers. One obv. snap called with KQ and rivered a str8.
• BSO Main Event-Never really had chips but held it around starting stack. At 400/800 with 28k-ish I decided I was 3 betting the button if he raised again with any 2 cards. I was in SB and actually woke up with a real hand. Sure enough button raises to 3800...lol live bet sizing. I consider a RR to 10kish but end up just shoving (maybe a bit too big of a shove). He tanks but calls with TT and out again.
• 6 max NLHE-Ran over my table early and ran stack from 15k to over 50k. Had 59k at dinner break. First hand back from dinner I raise TT from CO to 5400 at 1200/2400/300a. SB 3 bets to like 12.7k. I actually consider flatting but decide against it and just jam it in. He reluctantly calls with AQ and river is a Q. F-ME.

I guess to some extent it is inevitable. I had made 5 final tables (4 at Borgata) and nearly $100k in about a 6 month period beginning in October 2009. Tournaments are hard and a lot of fortune is required to go deep.

Cash games were pretty good. I actually won about $500 playing 1/2 NLHE with a buddy of mine for fun. I was raising nearly every other hand for a good while AND getting smashed by the deck. That is a good recipe when playing the 1/2 donks who have no clue how to play back at LAGS. Then the next night I got into a juicy 1/2/5 to open PLO game where the stacks got pretty deep. I made ~1k and played pretty snug.

Hand review for Stiker/Kuhns/Chow or any other Omaha players (please provide opinions). Situation:

• Game is standard low level game with a lot of limping and 7 or 8 to flop. Players play mediocre to bad post flop.
  
• I am on button with A69T single suited to the T.
  
• Limps to me and I just call the $5.
• $40 in pot pre

Flop comes A78 rainbow. MP player is pretty good PLO player and he bets pot. Folds to me. Effective stacks are $1.2k (600 BB). I call (I can obv raise here but if I do that then no matter what happens I am stacking off on turn if board doesn't pair). One more caller. Pot=$160

Turn is 5 making the board a badugi. Checks to me and I bet $160. BB folds but MP calls (Pot=$480). He pretty much always has a set here right??

River is 9 making me a better str8 though no longer the nuts. I decide I am likely b/f and bet $320. MP folds AA face up.

Thoughts on river bet sizing and flop decision to not stack off 600BB deep. Too nitty? Assume if we put stacks in we are likely flipping against AA or maybe 77/88. Obv if 200BB deep or less I am getting this in.

My thoughts are if the board pairs the turn I am done for $45. Also even if I get there now and he has a set; live players are stubborn and are likely to call off at least 1 bet. Finally, if I brick the turn I can still call a relatively smallish turn bet and get to the river for less than $200.

Be brutal if need be... :)

What next

Now that the reality of Black Friday has sunk in it is time to figure out what is next. I am lucky. I play on-line for fun and only as a means of small secondary income. I truly feel for those guys that grind out a living on-line or are associated with on-line poker in other ways (coaching, web sites, publishing, etc.). This will decimate them in the short run. However, I have to believe the handwriting was on the wall for some time as I talked about in November when legislation appeared to be gaining momentum. The status quo was simply not viable long-term. I do think on-line poker's future prospects are quite bright. Sure it will look a lot different then it has for the last 4 or 5 years. But a transparent system with easy deposit and withdrawal options will make the games better and ultimately attract more players here in the states. It may take some time but the end result should look pretty good.

For now, I guess I become a live player. You can probably tell from the theme of my previous posts that I don't really love live poker. The games I enjoy (PLO8, SNGs, PLO, mixed games) are not as commonly played live as on-line. Sure at the WSOP you can find all of these games but that is 1 month a year. Also when playing live one has to wait for a seat to open up. And if that seat is a bad one we can't just get up and click on another table. Finally there are costs associated with live play that don't exist playing on-line (gas, tolls, dealer tips, etc.). On the flip side, live players pretty much suck. Within about 5 or 6 hands at a table I know who the best players are and who are the nitty live players. Win rates are generally MUCH higher live than online. Of course, live players can't multi-table so that may reduce the actual hourly win rate.

With this in mind, I am off to Borgata on Tuesday to play the $350 HOSE or maybe the $350 NLHE, haven't decided which yet. Will likely also play the $200 NLHE on Wednesday. I am planning on returning next week for the Main Event and the $500 NLHE 6 max events. I may also go up for the WSOP Circuit Event in Philadelphia in early May. I think the Borgata will have a Deep Stacked event in mid-May that I am sure I will go up for that event. Then it will be June and I am off to the WSOP. So the schedule will be full in addition to my normal home games, etc.

In any event, I actually was looking to have a pretty solid month on-line. I had made up all but about $100 of my EV "losses" since my last post.

This chart represents about a 4big blind/100 win rate and should have been sustainable on Rush. Couple that with the end of tax season and I could put some significant volume in and lock in a pretty good month.

I couldn't really find too many super interesting hands but here is a good one. I probably left some $$$ on the table here but really thought we had the same hand. I mean guy puts in over 100bb after I make the nuts. Hard to figure.

Full Tilt Poker $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players - View hand 1282618
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $89.75
BTN: $82.70
SB: $63.50
BB: $38.50
UTG: $108.90
Hero (MP): $66.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with 5 A K 3
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) 6 K 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50, BB calls $5.50

Turn: ($22.00) 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.50, CO calls $14.50, BB calls $14.50

River: ($65.50) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $45.20, CO calls $45.20, BB folds

Final Pot: $155.90
CO mucks 4 4 K A
Hero shows 5 A K 3
Hero wins $76.45
(Rake: $3.00)

WTF

Well looks like D-Day is finally upon the poker websites.

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2011/04/online-poker-big-three-indicted-10218.htm

Basically the government is stating that the sites and the individuals behind the sites were indicted by the FBI on the grounds that they were defrauding the US banks that they were using for payment processing. Goes to show the importance of the legislation that is in front of Congress now to regulate and tax the poker sites.

Poker Stars has already reacted to this by blocking US players from real money games:

FTOPS starts on Sunday so who knows how they will react to this bombshell. No idea how this will work itself out but it can't be good in the near term. Basically a total crock of shit IMO. Guess my idea of keeping very little money on the sites was a good decision.

Standard start to month

Well this month has started like seemingly every other recent month...by running a good bit under EV:

All but about 600 hands are from Rush PLO8. So standard 8BI under EV. Whatever...one of these days I will go on a massive heater and win some big moneys. The play at Rush is dreadful. I have never seen more players flat calling 4 bets then folding high flops. It is truly insane. Here is a pretty good example (though in this case they don't fold):

Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha H/L Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8909422

SB: $41.10 (82.2 bb)
BB: $82 (164 bb)
UTG: $80.35 (160.7 bb)
Hero (MP): $50 (100 bb)
CO: $93.20 (186.4 bb)
BTN: $67.20 (134.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 2 A A 3
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, SB raises to $6.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $23.50, CO folds, BTN calls $21.75, SB calls $17

Flop: ($72.75) 4 7 5 (3 players)
SB bets $17.60 and is all-in, Hero raises to $26.50 and is all-in, BTN calls $26.50

Turn: ($143.35) J (3 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($143.35) 9 (3 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $143.35 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: 4 7 5 J 9
SB showed 5 6 7 K and won $61.30 ($20.20 net)
Hero showed 2 A A 3 and won $44 (-$6 net)
BTN showed 9 A K 2 and won $35.05 (-$14.95 net)

I truly don't know whose play is the worst here. SB decides to 3 bet with K567 double suited....ok...but he was a fish. Then I 4 bet and BTN decides to flat 1/2 of our effective stacks with AK92. I mean what flop can he possibly fold?? Just get it in if you are going with it. Guess I shouldn't complain as this seems to be common shit on FTP.

Then yesterday Rory decides to literally pull money from my pocket and burn it! WTF sir? 80? Oh well he handles it well I thought for a 21 year old.

One more week and the hell that is tax season is over...weeeeeee!

Decent weekend so far

Decided to play some MTT for the first time in a while last night. Got in the money in the Stars 70k Guarantee and bubbled the FTP 50-50 but actually final tabled the $5k PLO on FTP. First was around $1.5k as usual and I had a top 5 stack from about 75 players on down to the money. There were 230 entrants so 27 cashed. When we got to about 35 left I had a great situation where I had 55k or so and no one on my table had more than 18k. Needless to say I was able to pick up about 20k in chips from then until we got into the money. Once the bubble burst I tightened up a bit as I really had been overly aggressive with opening pots and 3 betting. Finally we got to the FT and all but one of the players were really bad with poor track records. So I was basically maintaining my stack when I made a very thin river call with 899J on a 44665 board. He had a 6 but had taken a really bizarre line and given his fishy stats I felt that I had to make the call.

Then I got donk stacked here:

Guy called off 75% of my stack with that trash and rivers the unfortunate 2 pair. Whatever; would have been 2nd and chips and had a very good chance to run the table.

I also have a few $$ on Rory McIlroy in the Masters getting 26-1. Not enough to get super excited about but I had called my father while he was in Vegas last week and had him put a few dollars on Rory, Paul Casey and the Caps to win the Stanley Cup. Caps were getting 5.5-1 and this was before they won the conference to get home ice throughout. Doesn't look so bad now! Anyway bring that shit home Rory!!!