Wednesday, June 3, 2015

WSOP 2015

Haven't posted in a year almost but haven't had much reason to really.  I don't think I have played  a single MTT since MD Live ran their summer series last July.  Played a ton of cash in the fall through the new year then basically didn't play once from about February 1 through April 15.  Obviously as a tax guy that is my heaviest volume period and I just didn't have the time to play.  Have played some since (maybe 35-40 hours).

At this point I am playing almost exclusively PLO.  No other reason for this than the games are super soft and easy to beat.  I have played some 2/5 NL while waiting for my name to be called or whatever, but that probably totals 90 minutes of NL.  The most interesting NL hand I played was about 2 weeks ago while waiting for 2/2 PLO.

Hand 1

1 limp; I raise to 20 with QhJh. 3 call incl limper. Flop QJ5r. I bet 55 into 80. Fold, fold, old guy ch calls. He is the one that had limp called pre. 

Turn A full rainbow. Old guy ch, I 120 into 190. He c/r to 350 with 200 behind. I literally haven't seen him play a hand so I guess he is a rock.

I ran it by a few people and got everything from limp pre when an old nit limps UTG, to check back turn as that fills in a ton of hands that beat me.  

Any comments?  Won't tell what I did for a bit.

Anyway 2/2 PLO is really good.  There just aren't very many good players and stacks get super deep later in the night given all of the all-ins, etc.  Pretty typical to have 3 or 4 players $2k deep and a bunch $1k-$1.5k deep.  Obviously it can be insanely swingy too but that is the nature of the game.

Heading out on June 13 for a week or so in the desert.  The plan is to play some combination of the following:

6/13 WSOP $1,500 Monster Stack 
6/14 WSOP $1k or Venetian $600
6/15 Venetian $600 PLO
6/16 WSOP $1,500 Mix Max
6/17 WSOP $1,500 PLO
6/18 Venetian $600

Sold some pieces of these events though I doubt I will play the full schedule and hopefully will go deep some.  I'm staying at Venetian again this year as the thought of a week in the Rio is just unbearable.  

Will update any good results as warranted.


The Poker Meister said...

Damnit - lost my original post but here's a summary:
A nit can flat a lot of hands to a $20 raise. However, he just calls a fairly dry flop. The turn Ace is a nice action card for a player who can get out of line, but how often is an older nit getting creative and c/r'ing a bluff?
Here are the range of hands I have him on that fit his story: A5, AJ, AQ, QJ, AK [flats a PF raise], QQ [flats a PF raise, 3 combos], JJ [flats a PF raise, 3 combos], KK [flats a PF raise], AA [????], KT, 55, and more rarely: J5, Q5.

Looking at the combos that beat you vs. the infrequent bluffs (T9, K9) and worse hands (less than likely J5, Q5 ('cause he's a nit), and the strongest candidate for the range AK), I fold to his c/r. In fact, against said nit above, like you talk about in the post, I likely check the turn... with an Ace turn card, there's just so much more of his range that has you beat here that I start to contain the pot - likely just calling his expected river bet.

Brian said...

I admittedly was sort of going through the motions and clicking buttons since I was awaiting the PLO game. Turn is interesting. I don't think an older nitty limp/calls KTs UTG but certainly could AQ, AJ but I think its 55 a lot just given the line.

Anyway I can't really find a hand that he is waiting for turn to bluff on so he should almost always be c/r-ing for value.

The Poker Meister said...

Totally agree he'll show up with 55 a TON - but old guys may not 3bet JJ. Not sure what your image is at the table, but as analyzed, there's a ton of hands that have you beat and not that much that you can beat. From a hands that you beat perspective, he can have bluffs (nits don't generally bluff - they blow up pots with nutty hands), he can have an AK, and he can have your hand - QJ.

Anonymous said...

Maybe I am wrong, but it seems time to fold. I would suspect he hit a set and gave you some rope. If I were him I would be likely to believe you had two pair. His bet seems to be saying I can beat two pair. I would have a tendency to believe him. I would guess QQ or JJ. An AA would surprise me.

Brian said...

Ya I folded. Not sure what I think is best on turn. I think bet/fold and checking back both have merit