November-$10k Month?

It's possible though might be a bit of a stretch.  Here is a review of a good session the other night.

15 min 5/10 NLHE +$885
9:08 2/5 NLHE +$1,805

Well my card dead/run bad from October is officially disengaged. Running pretty well, coolering a few people and playing well has added up to a really good stretch over my last ~5-6 sessions. Did a better job tracking some interesting hands so will have a bunch in this post.

I arrived yesterday afternoon and was immediately seated at 5/10. I only had $2k on me so I really wanted to play 2/5 as this reps only 2 bullets. anyway 1 hand was enough.

Some times the Game is Easy

This is literally like my 3rd hand at 5/10. Table was 6/7 handed with a dude that had played every pot for a raise. He is Villain in this hand. He opens to $50 with XX and I 3b in the BB with KK. He calls. My read was that he was spewy just based on the 3 hands and didn't want to give up like ever.

(Pot $305) Flop KT9 I lead $175 and he starts cutting out chips like he is going to raise but ultimately just calls. I think he has a pretty wide range still with a lot of TJ, QT, J9, AJ type hands being a big part of his range. Pair with gutters, bare gutters, etc.

(Pot $655) Turn 8 This is obv a brick. My man has like $575 left and although I can easily shove I think I can bet small and get him to commit thinking he has fold equity or just get 2 streets of value here. So i decide on $225. he calls pretty quickly.

(Pot $1105) River 8 Seems like a good card . I put him in for his remaining $340-350 and he calls saying "I can't put you on a hand". I table and obv MHIG.

Right after that I got called for 2/5. Thought about it for a minute and said fuck it, I'm gonna hit and run this game. So off to 2/5 I went when the following happens:

If your plan is to bet/fold you gotta bet/fold

I fold a few hands then on cue I get KK in MP. 2 limps in front and I go $25. only 1 of limpers calls. he appears young, good with chips, kinda talkative but never seen him in the room before.

(Pot $60) Flop QQ8 He ch and I decide to ch it back

(Pot $60) Turn 7 He ch, I bet $40 he call

(Pot $140) River 6 I decide to bet/fold targeting like 99/TT, 89, 8T, maybe 87, etc. So I bet $75 and he pretty quickly c/r to $250. His line doesn't really make much sense at all. But it's 2/5 and they don't a lot of time. I start talking to him asking him what he thinks I have. he says "I think you have a Q". When he says this I really think he is bluffing like he is trying to say he thinks I'm strong, yet he still made this play. But I went with my initial plan and folded. he showed JT for an odd bluff that worked.

Turning a meh hand into a bluff

A bad non-thinking player opens to $10 in LP over a limp or 2. I had a pretty good read on him that he bet big with big hands and smaller with smaller hands. He had earlier bet $25 pre, then bet $125 on the flop with $75 in the pot on Qxx board and showed the table QQ. Anyway I call BTN with AJ. 6 to flop.

(Pot $60) Flop QJ6 He bets $25, I call, SB calls.

(Pot $135) Turn 8 He bets $60 only I call. I think he has some weakish Q's here (QTs, etc.), maybe some hands I beat like AK or 99/TT and just doesn't know what to do so he bets kinda small. I obv pick up the NFD so I'm not folding.

(Pot $255) River 8 Not the card I was looking for. He fumbles around and bets $100 and I start thinking. I can't really call but he's a fish and I don't really like bluffing fish. Anyway I really decide to go with my read about his betting patterns. Although he has bet 3 streets, none of them have been very strong bets. So I decide to cram $375 more. He then starts thinking and quickly confirms he has a Q so I was right to raise or fold. Finally he says "You must have a full house so I fold".

Paying attention there and being engaged in the hand won me that pot for sure.

Stacking a meh LAG-set up hand tho

I open prob my fave QJ to $20 in MP. 3 callers including a LAG in SB. He was playing a lot of pots, raising every single time he straddled. He wasn't bad but wasn't a star either. Anyway 4 to flop.

(Pot $80) Flop AT8 Welp I'm not folding now, 2nd flush draw, double gutted is pretty good! Checks to me and I bet $55, only SB calls.

(Pot $190) Turn 3. he checks and I bet $125. He calls. I range him on 2 pair, sets, maybe like KQx, J9 (least likely I guess). I think he 3b AK preflop so I don't think he has AxK

(Pot $440) River 5 He checks a 3rd time and I decide to bet bigger. I bet $350 relatively quickly. He starts tanking and finally gives me the "Why so much?" speech. I try to look nervous and he finally calls with what he said was 88.

Nice pot. I wonder if I can bet even more on the end. Always hard to know.

Flopped world-just cram it

This is with the same Villain I bluffed above. He again min-raises and gets 1 caller. i decide to try and iso on him and raise KQ to $45, Folds and he calls, caller calls as well. 3 to flop.

(Pot $140) Flop K36 Villain leads $60 and other dude folds. I'm clearly raising but just not sure how much. Anything looks strong IMO. I finally settle on a jam and so I do jam effectively for his stack of $435. He thinks for a moment and then calls with KJo....lol. I hold and am off and running.

In this hand I just felt like he could find a fold if a bad card came on the turn (ie I made my flush). Once he led I put him on TP type hand so I thought my jam would look bluffier than a smallish raise. Also he probably thinks I am picking on him a bit.

I level myself into a bad call

Here is a hand that I hate the way I played. There are 2 limps and I raise to $25 with 99. 3 call and we go to the flop.

(Pot $100) Flop 457r Checks to me, I bet $65 and only young asian kid calls. I have played with before. Decent player that plays 5/T some and PLO at times.

(Pot $230) Turn 6. Now he leads $75 and I call. IDK this is probably a fold but the only hand that makes sense here is 88 and maybe 87s.

(Pot $380) River 9 He leads $115 and I puke in my mouth a little bit. I beat 77, 76, 66, etc but obv nothing with a 3 or 8 in it. I am getting in the neighborhood of 4.5-1 so I need 20-22% to call. I decide that he doesn't just have a straight and I beat all hands but the straight. So I puke call to see 88.

Blah. Don't like the way I played this hand at all.


Little over 60% of the way to a $10k month but will put in some grind over the next ~10days.

February was a good month....March rough start

So February was my biggest month since last June and my biggest month on-line since pre-Black Friday. I am especially pleased with on-line results since I am playing smaller games due to the uncertainty surrounding iPoker and my unwillingness to put much dough on the sites. Obviously both the cash games and the tournaments are over super small samples but I'll take it.

Cash...almost all PLO and PLO8...again small sample but only 3 down days is ok..amirite?

In addition to these results, I received $255 in rakeback and was up nearly $1,600 in live games. The live games were primarily the result of 1 massive night in a 1/2 PL mixed game where I believe I had one of my biggest winnings ever in terms of number of buy-ins won. All adds up to a nice $3,500+ month.

Then the calendar turned to March. Supposedly it comes in like a lion and I can confirm...

Sexy first 5k hands, eh? Anyway March better sure as fuck go out like a lamb.

I will be playing a limited schedule this month due to work getting chaotic. I am going to play a few of the Poker Maximus Series events on Merge. So far their fields have gotten pretty good numbers through the first handful of events. The reality is though that these events are still smaller than the nightly events I used to play pre-BF.

On the live front, I am going to play at least 1 PLO event at Delaware Park and maybe the Heads-Up event. The latter has a pretty shitty structure so I may skip. This series could be really, really good with a little better planning. I believe they need to up the buy-ins a bit and have a group of "Championship" events. There are 5 or 6 events that should be in any series with a bit higher buy-in (maybe $450 or $550). These would be:Main Event

• 6 max NLHE
• Heads Up
• PLO
• Omaha Hi-Lo
• HORSE

As it is the series includes a bunch of $120 and $150 buy-ins which I couldn't be less interested in driving an hour to attend.

Anyway...Good luck in march.

What next

Now that the reality of Black Friday has sunk in it is time to figure out what is next. I am lucky. I play on-line for fun and only as a means of small secondary income. I truly feel for those guys that grind out a living on-line or are associated with on-line poker in other ways (coaching, web sites, publishing, etc.). This will decimate them in the short run. However, I have to believe the handwriting was on the wall for some time as I talked about in November when legislation appeared to be gaining momentum. The status quo was simply not viable long-term. I do think on-line poker's future prospects are quite bright. Sure it will look a lot different then it has for the last 4 or 5 years. But a transparent system with easy deposit and withdrawal options will make the games better and ultimately attract more players here in the states. It may take some time but the end result should look pretty good.

For now, I guess I become a live player. You can probably tell from the theme of my previous posts that I don't really love live poker. The games I enjoy (PLO8, SNGs, PLO, mixed games) are not as commonly played live as on-line. Sure at the WSOP you can find all of these games but that is 1 month a year. Also when playing live one has to wait for a seat to open up. And if that seat is a bad one we can't just get up and click on another table. Finally there are costs associated with live play that don't exist playing on-line (gas, tolls, dealer tips, etc.). On the flip side, live players pretty much suck. Within about 5 or 6 hands at a table I know who the best players are and who are the nitty live players. Win rates are generally MUCH higher live than online. Of course, live players can't multi-table so that may reduce the actual hourly win rate.

With this in mind, I am off to Borgata on Tuesday to play the $350 HOSE or maybe the $350 NLHE, haven't decided which yet. Will likely also play the $200 NLHE on Wednesday. I am planning on returning next week for the Main Event and the $500 NLHE 6 max events. I may also go up for the WSOP Circuit Event in Philadelphia in early May. I think the Borgata will have a Deep Stacked event in mid-May that I am sure I will go up for that event. Then it will be June and I am off to the WSOP. So the schedule will be full in addition to my normal home games, etc.

In any event, I actually was looking to have a pretty solid month on-line. I had made up all but about $100 of my EV "losses" since my last post.

This chart represents about a 4big blind/100 win rate and should have been sustainable on Rush. Couple that with the end of tax season and I could put some significant volume in and lock in a pretty good month.

I couldn't really find too many super interesting hands but here is a good one. I probably left some $$$ on the table here but really thought we had the same hand. I mean guy puts in over 100bb after I make the nuts. Hard to figure.

Full Tilt Poker $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players - View hand 1282618
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $89.75
BTN: $82.70
SB: $63.50
BB: $38.50
UTG: $108.90
Hero (MP): $66.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with 5 A K 3
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) 6 K 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50, BB calls $5.50

Turn: ($22.00) 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.50, CO calls $14.50, BB calls $14.50

River: ($65.50) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $45.20, CO calls $45.20, BB folds

Final Pot: $155.90
CO mucks 4 4 K A
Hero shows 5 A K 3
Hero wins $76.45
(Rake: $3.00)