Playing again

Session 1--April 23, 2014-MD Live

20 mins 2/5 NLHE +$494
5:20 mins 2/2 PLO +$440

Welp I'm back. Tax season was a typical PITA but it's over now. I may not post as much going forward but wanted to post something since it has been so long. We shall see. Once or twice a month may be doable. 

Things have been really good IRL. Lost about 15 lbs since beginning of the year. Goal was to lose 25 before I left for WSOP so with a little over a month that may be a stretch but progress is progress and I am sticking with it. 

Other stuff good too. Going to play a bit of competitive golf this summer with the state Amateur at my home club. But the weather post April 15th has been horrendous so haven't played more than 9 holes since then. Playing this weekend.

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Anyway on the pokering. I played last week and had a $1k session without any particularly interesting spots. Then I played last night. Got there about 6:45 and was immediately seated for 2/5 while I waited for PLO to open. Only played a few hands and then this happens and there is some post hand lullllz.

Stacking Semi-Reg (Hand 1)

I open 56 to $20 from MP, 2 call, SB calls, BB calls. I have been pretty active in the 2 or so orbits I have been there probably open raising 4-5 times.

(Pot $100) Flop T55 Blinds check, I bet $70, BTN calls, BB then tank c/r to $210 with $260-ish behind. BB is young fat Asian kid I have played with before. He is mildly tilting with sunglasses and he tanks on every decision. My read is that he is a break-even semi-reg and is probably nittier than one would think given his look/physical image. I can flat here and just let him pile the turn and maybe keep BTN in with his T or  draw but I ultimately decide to stick it in. BTN flashes his cards to the guy next to him and folds. 

BB then tanks for like a good 3 minutes. And this is where I think I say he is a baddish reg. I don't know how you c/r flop putting in over 40% of your stack and then have no clue what to do when I pile. The reverse of this is still a leak of mine I think. I figure there is just no possible way this cat is folding so let's just get it in and then suddenly they go in the tank and I'm like wtf is this fish really gonna fold? 

Ultimately I guess he realized (I guess) that there was over $900 in the pot and cost him $260 to call. So unless he had a total airball I assume he can get there. If I ever have AK/AQ in my range it should be a trivial call off. Anyway he calls 

Turn 5 

River X

So no big deal but I get called for 2/2 PLO at that moment. I check out the table and decide to go. Villain says something under his breath and I say "sorry I came to play PLO tonight. I am not hitting and running you." He starts in about how lucky I got and he had JJ, and must be nice to run so good, raising that crap, etc. I bite my tongue though the irony should not be lost.

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Loose call pre leads to dumb spot post-flop (Hand 2)

I moved to PLO and was pretty active. Raising a lot, playing and position but really just making some good hands. Was up a few hundred when this happens.

Few limps, guy in HJ raises to $10, I make a pretty meh call (being kind) with A3T8. Mostly called because there were two fish that were relatively deep and I was in position. Anyway BTN calls, few other callers and we are 6 to the flop. 

(Pot $60) Flop 863 Checks to me and I bet $50, BTN calls with ~$80 behind, SB is super gambly Asian on his 3rd or 4th buy and he c/r pot to $260 with $25 or so behind. Back to me and I start thinking. SB is clearly on a draw, no question. Problem is if he has a pair with a draw he is probably ahead of me. The BTN is obviously calling and he too is 100% on a draw. Ideally they are sharing some outs. So if I assume the pot will end up being $525 costing me $235 to call off (I assume everyone is all in). So I need somewhere around 27-28% to be profitable here. It's always harder to range in PLO but I figured he SB had some bare draws in his range so I could probably get to 30% equity. Of course, I am only doing this post hand as I can't calculate these EV's at the table. But in game, I did figure I had more than 27-28% so I called off.

These are pretty strong ranges and I still have over 30%. I don't know. Any thoughts on this?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 863

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsTd8d3s	31.44%	183,712	9,914
cc8, cc57, cc67, cc	36.75%	215,868	9,236
cc8, 57cc, 579, 457	31.81%	183,553	14,669

Anyway I held and they didn't show. I'm guessing their drawing ranges were actually a little weaker even then what I ranged.

So ended up with a pretty good night. Will be playing a decent amount over the next month and then headed to WSOP on 5/27 for about a week.  I actually considered not going at all this year. With all the games at MD Live, travelling to play 2/5, 5/10 and <$1,500 buy in MTTs didn't make a ton of sense.  But the Millionairre Maker is on when I am there and that seems like it should have huge equity so WTF.  There is also a $1k PLO for the first time that week that I will play.  Plus it is a vacation of sorts where I can just focus on the pokering.

A few dumb hands from MD Live

Hadn't been playing a ton of the pokerz as I was recovering from the surgery I had exactly a month ago and once I got the clearance from the doctor I have been playing a lot of golf. I used to play at a pretty competitive level but after 20+ years of grinding the driving range, etc. poker has been more interesting to me the last few years. But slowly the desire to play high level golf is building. The MD Amateur is at my home club next June so I think I am going to make a run to get my game and my body in shape for playing a full schedule next summer. For now though, my golf game is in shambles. Just starting working with the director of instruction at the Caves Valley Learning Center. It has to be one of the nicest practice facilities in the country. I've been to a lot of the best clubs in the country and there aren't many practice facilities that stack up to it. Anyway, as that progresses I may orient this to detail that process if there is any interest.

On to the poker. MD Live opened with great fanfare 2 weeks ago and has proven to be a huge hit. Tables are running around the clock in NLHE and PLO and other games/limits at busy times. I have been 3 times and found the action to be very good. I have played 1 session of 2/2 PLO and 2 sessions of 2/5 NLHE. While the PLO is slightly higher hourly winrate expectations (long term) it comes with higher variance (short term). So for the moment, reduced variance is the way I am going. Here are a couple of fun hands where maybe I didn't play super well and one where a fishy reg made a head scratcher play.

Sometimes the Fish gets there

This is literally my first hand played at MD Live. I sit in the 2/2 PLO game with $300 and call a raise to $10 with AT79 from the SB. Not the greatest hand but 3 connected cards, 2 broadway cards, a suited A; all seems good enough to call. 7 to flop.

(Pot $70) Flop T62 Well that looks pretty good; Top Pair Top Kicker, Nut Flush Draw and a gutshot. I'll happily c/r this all in. So I check; original raiser bets $50, 1 caller, I c/r pot to $270. Original raiser calls; other dude folds.

(Pot $660) Turn 8; well that was easy! I put my last $20 in and he obv calls. I tell the dude I got there and I have a redraw to the nut flush. He say's "pair the board dealer".

River is 3 and I say "Nuts"; turn over my hand to reveal A975 for no flush Oops misread that by a lot...lol. Anyway I was good and he was not happy. Was obvious that I just f-ed up though.

EZ Game

Nice Turn; better River

This is a 2/5 hand. I have been fairly active in this game and am up maybe $200 to ~$700-ish. I open 66 to $25 in LP over a fishy limper. BB calls and limper folds. BB is ok-ish reg that I have played with before.

(Pot ~$50) Flop T57 He checks and I c-bet $35. When he calls I am not continuing here with anything much on the turn. I range him on AX, 88-99 with a or perhaps AT, QTs, etc.

(Pot ~$120) Turn 4 Hmmm change of plans now that we are open ended and appear to have picked up some equity. He checks and I decide to bet here as it is starting to look like he has a one pair type hand or perhaps a draw. I decide on $70. Obviously I am bet/folding if he c/r the turn so I don't think betting more makes much sense. He reluctantly calls.

(Pot ~$260) River 8 Welp that is a good card! He checks again and I think his range is completely capped at 1 pair with some bricked draws mixed in. He is obviously not calling if he missed his draw. But we 100% have the best hand so need to get some value. I think about it and decide on $125. He calls after some hemming and hawing and is shocked to see my hand. . Claims he had QQ but I don't believe that. Maybe JJ, JT, AT, etc. In any event, his river call is pretty bad but I'll take it.

Really Bad Reg does Some Live Stuff

One thing I have learned over my 600ish hours of 2/5 is that 2/5 regs are arguably the worst subset of poker players (this is obviously just a generality) . 1/2 regs are just really bad, weak passive players with poor fundamentals. 5/T regs are better in the sense that they are at least ranging opponents and are more aggressive. But 2/5 regs are the pits generally. They think they know WTF is going on and have more knowledge than a 1/2 player but just misapply concepts and strategy seemingly every hand. Listening to hand analysis after a particularly big 2/5 pot develops is a fucking laugh riot.

I'm sure some think I make dumb plays but I at least have a reason for each action I take. It may be wrong and I may read a spot wrong but at least I am taking an action based on my read of the players and the situation.

Here is a funny one with a terrible, losing reg.

He opens to $20, I call in c/o with JT. I consider 3b here but we are only like $600 deep effective so I prefer to play a multi way pot hopefully. BB calls and we go 3 ways.

(Pot ~$60) Flop 422 He bets $35 and only I call. I hate continuing on a paired board but I have 2 overs and a flush draw. And this reg will give up a lot on the turn and I can steal the pot even unimproved.

(Pot ~$130) Turn 6 He leads $80...ok now I know he has a real hand. Most likely 88+ though I suppose he could have like AK-KQ. I decide to call as I still think I will play the river better than him.

(Pot ~$290 with about $475 behind effective) River Q Hmmm the only hands this improved for him are AQ, KQ or QQ. He checks after some hand wringing. I decide to take a stab even though I think my line is completely transparent to a better player. Frankly against a better player I doubt I bet here as I just don't rep very much. So I bet $160 and he starts talking. Literally 4 minute tank then he says $200 on top. I show him the T and say I guess you rivered Q's full trying to goad him into showing. I fold and he shows JJ.

So I just say "Nice hand". Then he starts saying "yeah I knew you had 99 or TT and knew you wouldn't call if I raised...actually was hoping you didn't call"...I'm sorry what??? Then why are you raising...lol. Then he starts in with more about how he knew I had either a bluff or a middle pair. OK fine but I'm clearly not calling those hands and you said yourself you don't want a call??? IDK I guess logic was in short supply at this table.

So for my 3 sessions at MD Live I have played ~17 hours as follows:

2/2 PLO 7 hours -$305
2/5 NLHE 10 hours +$702

Probably back later this week for more.